Supply pressure is a quantifiable market force derived from basic tokenomics: if daily token supply increases faster than demand can absorb, prices decline. A token with 1M circulating supply and 100k daily emissions faces 10% daily dilution (assuming zero burn or buyback). If the market values buying pressure at less than 10% daily volume, selling pressure from dilution alone pushes prices lower. Supply pressure becomes acute during unlock events—cliff dates where large batches of vested tokens become liquid simultaneously. Token holders who received vesting grants (employees, early investors) often sell immediately upon vesting to diversify or realize gains, magnifying selling pressure beyond the baseline dilution rate. Quantifying supply pressure requires understanding which unlocking tokens are likely to be sold versus held. Employee vesting creates maximum pressure because employees have strong incentives to monetize compensation (need for cash, risk concentration). Early investor vesting creates medium pressure—VCs and angels may hold for upside but often trim positions to lock in gains. Protocol emissions and treasury releases create minimal baseline pressure if the protocol intends to hold or deploy capital strategically. A refined metric combines the percentage of supply unlocking with the category's historical selling rate: (% unlocking) × (category sell-through rate) = expected sell pressure. A 5% unlock where 90% is employee vesting (90% expected to sell) creates 4.5% expected supply pressure, while a 5% treasury release (5% expected to sell) creates 0.25% pressure. Supply pressure dynamics shift across market cycles. During bull markets, buying pressure can exceed selling pressure even with large unlocks, and prices may rise despite dilution. During bear markets or when a protocol has poor fundamentals, supply pressure compounds existing weakness—unlocks trigger cascading liquidations as traders front-run expected declines. The most explosive supply pressure events occur when a high-float token (small circulating supply relative to total supply) experiences a major cliff unlock, suddenly increasing float by 10-20%+. Understanding the timing, magnitude, and category of supply pressure is essential for estimating downside risk in token valuations.