Unlock Concentration
Unlock concentration measures how much of a period's total unlock value sits in a single event or a small handful of them. A month whose leaderboard is topped by one cliff several times larger than the next entry carries a different risk profile from a month where the same dollars are spread across many tokens, even when the two totals match exactly.
TradFi parallel: Like the difference between an index whose entire return comes from one mega-cap and one where it is spread across the book. The headline number is identical; what you are actually exposed to is not.
Key Takeaways
- 01Concentration is a property of how a period's value is distributed, not of any single event, and is usually expressed as the top event's multiple over the next-largest
- 02It is axis-dependent. The dollar-dominant cliff (HYPE in July 2026, over 5x the next) and the float-dominant cliff (CONX at 115% of circulating on $35.21M) are rarely the same token
- 03A dominant event pools risk onto one date and one order book; a dispersed month spreads comparable dollars across ecosystems
- 04Dispersion is common. October 2025 carried SOL, WLD, SUI, GRASS, ATH and EIGEN in the same month with no single event dominating the board
- 05Concentration can sit in a cohort rather than a name: six Bittensor subnets each cleared 20% of circulating supply in July 2026 on dollar values under $2M each
- 06Concentrated is not automatically dangerous. Absorption depends on the depth of the market each release lands in, not on the size of the multiple
How It Works
The standard expression of concentration is a multiple against the next-largest event. In July 2026, Hyperliquid's $690.55M cliff was the month's largest cliff event by a factor of over 5x relative to the next entry. In June 2026 the same token's $540.36M cliff led by a factor of nearly 8x over the next-largest cliff and was worth nearly 4x the combined value of the next three tokens on the board, which is why that month's cliff leaderboard was described as defined by extreme concentration at the top, with a single event accounting for the large majority of total unlock value. The multiple is more informative than the absolute figure, because it says whether the period has one story or many.
Concentration is always measured on a chosen axis, and the axes routinely disagree. By dollar value July 2026 belonged to HYPE. By percentage of circulating supply it did not: Eclipse released 93.89% of circulating on $3.54M and YALA 46.25% on $0.04M, while CONX unlocked 115.00% of its entire circulating supply on $35.21M, a release the monthly reports carry in both July and August 2026. At the other end, Bitcoin topped the combined leaderboard at $876.22M while expanding its float by 0.07%, a non-event in supply terms whose scale reflects market depth rather than dilution. The dollar-dominant event and the float-dominant event are usually different tokens, and they answer different questions: concentration by value shows where market-wide capital and attention are pointed, concentration by float shows which individual token is being re-based.
The dispersed case is the useful contrast. October 2025 had no comparable single event. SOL led at $482.342M for a 0.38% float increase, WLD followed at $248.936M for 8.10%, SUI at $197.700M for 1.57%, then GRASS at $139.758M for a 59.51% expansion, ATH at $111.525M for 14.19%, and EIGEN at $57.440M for 11.15%. Value was distributed across several large events instead of pooling into one, and the most extreme proportional release sat fourth by dollar value. Structurally that is a very different month: pressure spread across ecosystems and order books rather than landing on one date, one token, and one book, even though the aggregate could be similar.
Concentration also appears at the level of a cohort rather than a name, and that version is easy to miss. In July 2026, six Bittensor subnets each cleared the 20% circulating-supply threshold in the linear dataset, at SN102 38.87%, SN114 30.48%, SN38 30.17%, SN15 28.21%, SN47 26.14% and SN31 25.52%, on dollar values ranging from just $0.25M to $1.82M. No individual event is large and the aggregate value is modest, but the pressure is concentrated in one ecosystem's emission model rather than scattered across the market. Reading concentration well therefore means naming the axis and the level: one event, one token, or one sector. It also means resisting the assumption that concentrated equals dangerous, since absorption depends on the depth of the book each release lands in, which is exactly why a $690.55M cliff at 4.46% of circulating and a $35.21M cliff at 115% of circulating can sit on the same leaderboard at opposite ends of the risk spectrum.
Real World Examples
HYPE: one event carrying the month
View →Hyperliquid's June 2026 cliff of $540.36M led the month by a factor of nearly 8x over the next-largest cliff and was worth nearly 4x the combined value of the next three tokens. In July 2026 the pattern repeated at $690.55M, over 5x the next entry. At 4.16% and 4.46% of circulating supply respectively, the events were meaningful without being extreme in float terms; the concentration was in dollars.
CONX: extreme on the other axis
View →Connex recorded a 115.00% circulating supply expansion twice, unlocking more tokens in a single cliff than its entire existing float, on modest dollar values of $17.31M in June 2026 and $35.21M in a release the monthly reports carry in both July and August 2026. It never approached the top of the value leaderboard, but it was the most structurally extreme reading in the dataset. The low absolute value does not reduce the significance of the proportional expansion.
October 2025: what a dispersed month looks like
View →The month's value was spread across SOL at $482.342M for a 0.38% float increase, WLD at $248.936M for 8.10%, SUI at $197.700M for 1.57%, GRASS at $139.758M for a 59.51% expansion, ATH at $111.525M for 14.19% and EIGEN at $57.440M for 11.15%. No single event dominated, and the sharpest proportional release ranked only fourth by dollar value.
BTC: the largest entry that concentrates nothing
View →Bitcoin topped the July 2026 combined leaderboard at $876.22M, the month's largest unlock by absolute value, while releasing 0.07% of circulating supply. The scale reflects market depth rather than structural dilution, which is why a value-ranked leaderboard alone will systematically overstate the concentration risk carried by the deepest assets.
Bittensor subnets: concentration without a dominant event
View →In July 2026 six TAO-ecosystem subnets each cleared the 20% circulating supply threshold in the linear dataset, from SN31 at 25.52% up to SN102 at 38.87%, on dollar values between $0.25M and $1.82M. The clustering is a structural feature of the monthly emission model rather than a coincidence of scheduling, and it concentrates pressure at the ecosystem level while the aggregate dollar value stays small.
Frequently Asked Questions
How is unlock concentration usually expressed?
As a multiple of the top event against the next-largest in the same period, sometimes against the combined value of the next several. Tokenomist's monthly reports use exactly this framing: HYPE led July 2026 by over 5x the next-largest cliff, and June 2026 by nearly 8x while also exceeding the combined value of the next three tokens. The multiple travels better than the absolute figure because it describes the shape of the month rather than its size.
Should I read concentration in dollars or as a percentage of float?
Both, because they rank differently and answer different questions. Dollar concentration tells you where market-wide capital and attention sit in a period. Float concentration tells you which token is being re-based by its own release. The split is easy to see: HYPE dominated July 2026 by value, while CONX, at 115% of circulating supply on $35.21M, dominated by proportion.
Does a concentrated month mean more downside?
Not by itself. Concentration says where the value sits, not whether the market can take it. A large release into a deep book can pass with little effect while a small release into a thin one is a genuine dislocation, which is why a $690.55M cliff at 4.46% of circulating and a $35.21M cliff at 115% of circulating occupy opposite ends of the same leaderboard. Pair the concentration reading with market depth before drawing a conclusion.
Can a period be concentrated without any single large event?
Yes, when the pressure clusters in a cohort. In July 2026 six Bittensor subnets each released more than 20% of their individual circulating supplies on dollar values under $2M, a sector-wide signal produced by a shared emission model rather than by any one event. Screening only for large individual unlocks would miss it entirely.
Related Terms
crypto market emissionbig unlocknotable cliff release eventabsorption capacityunlock calendarcliff unlock
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