PROTOTYPE
A Tokenomist design concept exploring equity lockup tracking. It is not an official Tokenomist product. Deal terms are sourced from SEC filings and press reports. Items marked EST are modeled estimates. See sources & disclaimer below.
SpaceXSPCXLockup & Vesting Tracker
Price
IPO Price
$135.00
Mkt Cap
$2.08T
Exchange
NASDAQ
Ticker
SPCX
Shares Outstanding
13.57B SPCX
$1.83T at the $135 IPO price, merger shares included
Public Float
1.87B SPCX
13.8% of shares outstanding
Locked
11.70B SPCX
86.2% of shares outstanding
IPO Raise (gross)
$86.25B
all-primary · 638.89M SPCX · 4.7% float
How SpaceX's lock-up works: insiders can't sell right after the IPO. Most shares unlock in stages across the first 180 days, and a smaller group stays locked into mid-2027. The biggest unlocks are tied to SpaceX's earnings dates: Q2 2026 has reported, so that unlock date is fixed, while the four later earnings dates are still estimates. Elon Musk's shares are locked separately for a full year with no early release.
Unlock Schedule: Public Float
Cumulative tradable shares by holder group · Jun 2026 → Sep 2027
Allocations
Elon Musk
Institutional & VC
Employees & Alumni
Alphabet
xAI Merger Holders
IPO Public Float
Next Event: Sep 9, 09:30 ET
Day 90 release
+7% time-based
0
D
8
H
13
M
9
S
Shares unlocking
319.00M · $48.96B
Supply Pressure Index (Lockup Overhang)
MODERATE
Up to 2.66B shares ($408.74B) become eligible within the next 90d, about 1.4x the current float. Staggered by design. Eligible does not mean sold.
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Key terms
Lock-up period
A window after the IPO during which insiders (employees, early investors) are contractually barred from selling, to prevent a flood of shares right after listing. SpaceX has two: a 180-day lock-up covering most holders, and an extended one that runs into mid-2027 for a smaller group. Musk's is separate again.
Early release / staggered lock-up
Instead of all shares unlocking on day 180, SpaceX releases them in tranches on a schedule, so supply enters the market gradually.
Early Release Eligible Shares
The specific pool of locked shares that the 180-day release percentages (20%, 10%, 7%, 28%) are calculated against, as defined in the prospectus. Excludes Rule 144 affiliates, who get their own catch-up tranche. The extended lock-up pool is separate and releases in its own 20% and 10% steps.
First Earnings Release Date
The day SpaceX publicly releases its first full quarterly results as a public company (Q2, quarter ended June 30, 2026). Flash/preliminary numbers do not count. This date gates the first real unlock.
Second full trading day (T+2)
The unlock isn't on the earnings date itself, but two complete Nasdaq trading sessions later. Say results land after market close on a Tuesday: Wednesday is the first full trading day, Thursday the second, so insiders can sell from Thursday's 09:30 ET open. Weekends and Nasdaq holidays are skipped. The prospectus says "the beginning of the second full trading day" without naming a clock time, so we show the regular-session open; some supply can move earlier in pre-market (04:00 ET) and in overnight blocks.
Performance / price trigger
A conditional early release of an extra 10%, allowed only if the stock stays at least 30% above the $135 IPO price on at least 5 of the 10 trading days ending on the First Earnings Release Date.
Cliff vs. staggered release
A cliff is a single date where a chunk unlocks at once; staggered means several smaller releases over time. SPCX uses earnings-gated cliffs plus time-based staggered tranches.
Affiliate (Rule 144)
Insiders (officers, directors, large holders) whose sales face extra SEC restrictions even after a lock-up lifts; the filing excludes them from certain release counts.
Float
The number of shares actually available to trade in the public market. Unlocks increase the float.
Flash / preliminary earnings
Early, partial earnings figures. The prospectus says these do not trigger the unlock clock. Only the full release does.
Cumulative vs. incremental %
Incremental is how much unlocks at that one event; cumulative is the total unlocked so far across all events.
Greenshoe / over-allotment
An option letting underwriters sell extra shares to meet demand. For SPCX it was 83.3M shares. They exercised it in full on Jun 15, 2026, taking the offering to 638.9M shares.
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