PROTOTYPE
A Tokenomist design concept exploring equity lockup tracking. It is not an official Tokenomist product. Deal terms are sourced from SEC filings and press reports. Items marked EST are modeled estimates. See sources & disclaimer below.
SpaceXSPCXLockup & Vesting Tracker
Price
IPO Price
$135.00
Mkt Cap (FD)
$1.77T
Exchange
NASDAQ
Ticker
SPCX
Total Shares (FD)
13.11B SPCX
$1.77T · fully diluted, post-IPO
Public Float
555.60M
4.2% of shares outstanding
Locked
12.56B
95.8% of total shares
IPO Raise
$75.01B
all-primary · 555.6M sh · ~4.24% float
Musk Voting Power
82.4%
per S-1 dual-class structure
How SpaceX's lock-up works: insiders can't sell right after the IPO. Shares unlock in stages over ~180 days. The biggest early unlocks are tied to SpaceX's earnings dates: the Q2 report is now scheduled, so its unlock date is set, while the Q3 date is still an estimate. Elon Musk's shares are locked separately for a full year with no early release.
Unlock Schedule: Public Float
Cumulative tradable shares by holder group · Jun 2026 → Jul 2027
Elon Musk
Institutional & VC
Employees & Alumni
Alphabet
xAI Merger Holders
IPO Public Float
Next Event: Aug 6
Q2 earnings cliff
20% of early-release eligible shares · T+2 after the release
10
D
22
H
11
M
30
S
Shares unlocking
911.50M · $123.05B
Supply Pressure Index (Lockup Overhang)
HIGH
Up to 2.51B shares ($338.39B) become eligible within the next 90d, about 4.5x the current float. Staggered by design. Eligible does not mean sold.
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Key terms
Lock-up period
A window after the IPO during which insiders (employees, early investors) are contractually barred from selling, to prevent a flood of shares right after listing. SpaceX's main lock-up is 180 days.
Early release / staggered lock-up
Instead of all shares unlocking on day 180, SpaceX releases them in tranches on a schedule, so supply enters the market gradually.
Early Release Eligible Shares
The specific pool of locked shares that the staggered-release percentages (20%, 10%, 7%, 28%) are calculated against, as defined in the prospectus. Excludes Rule 144 affiliates.
First Earnings Release Date
The day SpaceX publicly releases its first full quarterly results as a public company (Q2, quarter ended June 30, 2026). Flash/preliminary numbers do not count. This date gates the first real unlock.
Second full trading day (T+2)
The unlock isn't on the earnings date itself, but two complete Nasdaq trading sessions later. Say results land after market close on a Tuesday: Wednesday is the first full trading day, Thursday the second, so insiders can sell at Thursday's open. Weekends and Nasdaq holidays are skipped.
Performance / price trigger
A conditional early release of an extra 10%, allowed only if the stock stays at least 30% above the $135 IPO price on at least 5 of the 10 trading days ending on the First Earnings Release Date.
Cliff vs. staggered release
A cliff is a single date where a chunk unlocks at once; staggered means several smaller releases over time. SPCX uses earnings-gated cliffs plus time-based staggered tranches.
Affiliate (Rule 144)
Insiders (officers, directors, large holders) whose sales face extra SEC restrictions even after a lock-up lifts; the filing excludes them from certain release counts.
Float
The number of shares actually available to trade in the public market. Unlocks increase the float.
Flash / preliminary earnings
Early, partial earnings figures. The prospectus says these do not trigger the unlock clock. Only the full release does.
Cumulative vs. incremental %
Incremental is how much unlocks at that one event; cumulative is the total unlocked so far across all events.
Greenshoe / over-allotment
An option letting underwriters sell extra shares to meet demand, up to 83.3M additional shares for SPCX.
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