Assumption and Precision
Assumption and precision is Tokenomist's dual-axis framework for grading data confidence. Every unlock data point carries an assumption type (how the data was sourced) and a precision level (how accurately the timing is known), giving users transparent confidence grades for every metric.
TradFi parallel — Like a financial audit opinion — ranging from 'unqualified' (fully verified) to 'qualified' (with caveats) — each data point carries a confidence grade.
Key Takeaways
- 01Every data point on Tokenomist carries both an assumption type (source) and precision level (temporal accuracy)
- 02Five assumption types ranked by confidence: Vesting Contract, Public Project Data & On-chain Verified, Public Project Data, Private Project Data, Inferred On-chain
- 03Seven precision levels from most to least granular: Second, Block, Hour, Day, Week, Month, To Be Determined
- 04Vesting Contract assumptions offer the highest reliability because they are derived directly from on-chain smart contracts
- 05The framework enables users to weight data points appropriately when making investment decisions
- 06No other tokenomics platform provides this level of source and precision transparency
How It Works
Tokenomist's assumption and precision framework is the core differentiator that separates its data from unverified aggregators. Every vesting schedule, unlock event, and supply metric carries two metadata tags: an assumption type describing the data source and a precision level describing temporal accuracy. This transparency lets users make informed decisions about how much weight to place on any given data point.
The five assumption types form a confidence hierarchy. Vesting Contract is the highest confidence — data derived directly from a time-lock smart contract that can be independently verified on-chain. Public Project Data & On-chain Verified represents publicly announced schedules that Tokenomist has confirmed against on-chain records. Public Project Data covers schedules announced via blog posts, documentation, or official channels without on-chain verification. Private Project Data comes from information confirmed privately by the project's team. Inferred On-chain is the lowest confidence — schedules interpreted from on-chain behavior patterns without official confirmation.
The seven precision levels describe temporal granularity: Second, Block, Hour, Day, Week, Month, and To Be Determined. A vesting contract with block-level precision means Tokenomist can pinpoint the exact block at which tokens unlock. A schedule based on public project data with monthly precision means the unlock is expected within a given month but the exact date is uncertain. The combination of assumption type and precision level gives users a complete picture of data reliability — a Vesting Contract at Block precision is near-certain, while Inferred On-chain at Month precision warrants caution.
Real World Examples
Arbitrum Vesting Contract Precision
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Arbitrum's team and investor unlock schedules are sourced from on-chain vesting contracts, giving them the highest assumption confidence. Tokenomist can track these unlocks to block-level precision, letting users know the exact moment tokens become claimable.
Optimism Public Data with On-chain Verification
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Optimism published its vesting schedule in official documentation, and Tokenomist verified the schedules against on-chain records. This Public Project Data & On-chain Verified assumption gives users high confidence in the data while acknowledging the primary source was off-chain.
Starknet Blog-Sourced Schedule
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Starknet announced its unlock schedule via a blog post. Tokenomist cataloged this as Public Project Data assumption. While the information is official, it lacks on-chain contract verification, so the precision level reflects the granularity provided in the announcement.
Solana Staking Emission Inference
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Solana's staking reward emissions are interpreted from on-chain behavior and protocol parameters. Tokenomist classifies this as Inferred On-chain with day-level precision, making clear that the data is derived rather than explicitly stated by the project.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the assumption type tell me about a data point?
The assumption type describes how Tokenomist sourced the data. Vesting Contract means it was read directly from an on-chain smart contract — the most reliable source. Public Project Data & On-chain Verified means the project announced it and Tokenomist confirmed it on-chain. Public Project Data comes from official announcements without on-chain verification. Private Project Data was confirmed directly by the project team. Inferred On-chain was interpreted from blockchain activity patterns.
What does precision level mean for unlock timing?
Precision level indicates how accurately Tokenomist can pinpoint when an unlock occurs. Second and Block precision mean the exact moment is known. Hour and Day precision narrow it to a short window. Week and Month precision indicate broader estimates. To Be Determined means the timing is unknown. On each token's detail page, Tokenomist displays the precision level alongside every unlock event so you know how exact the timing is.
Why does Tokenomist track assumption and precision at all?
Not all tokenomics data is created equal. A vesting schedule read from a smart contract is fundamentally more reliable than one inferred from on-chain behavior. By tagging every data point with its source and temporal accuracy, Tokenomist lets you calibrate your confidence level. This transparency is Tokenomist's core differentiator — no other platform provides per-data-point confidence grades.
Can assumption types change over time?
Yes. A data point might start as Public Project Data when first announced and later be upgraded to Public Project Data & On-chain Verified once Tokenomist confirms it against on-chain records. Similarly, if a project deploys a vesting contract, the assumption upgrades to Vesting Contract. Tokenomist continuously monitors and updates assumption types as new information becomes available.
Where can I see the assumption and precision for a specific token?
Navigate to any token's detail page on Tokenomist. Each unlock event, vesting schedule, and supply data point displays its assumption type and precision level. This lets you evaluate the confidence grade of every metric before incorporating it into your analysis. The methodology documentation at /methodology/precision-and-assumption provides the complete framework definition.
Related Terms
Track on Tokenomist
Supply-side analysis for educational purposes. Not financial advice. Verify assumption and precision labels on the relevant token page.