Cumulative Unlock Projection

The projection is built by picking checkpoints and totalling everything scheduled to land before each one. Tokenomist's monthly unlock reports use two: the October 2025 report ran out to December 2025 and March 2026, a six-month horizon; the July 2026 report used September and December. Each token gets two readings at each checkpoint, a cumulative percentage of total supply and a cumulative dollar value. The month's own unlock is only the first point on that curve. A token can look unremarkable in the current month and carry the steepest trajectory in the cohort, which is precisely the failure mode a projection exists to catch.

The two tracks are not computed the same way, and it is worth knowing which one carries an assumption. In the October 2025 report, ZETA is projected at 6.32% of total supply unlocked by December 2025 with a cumulative value of $24.533M, then 12.65% by March 2026 with a cumulative value of about $49.068M. PEAQ moves from 5.89% and $28.505M to 11.78% and $57.010M. In both cases the percentage and the dollar figure double together, which shows the value column scales linearly with the token count at a held price. The dollar track is therefore a valuation of the schedule at today's price, not a price forecast. The percentage track is the schedule itself and moves only if the schedule changes.

The shape between checkpoints is where the reading happens, and three patterns recur. Near-uniform: in July 2026, HYPE steps from 1.62% of total supply to 4.87% through September and 9.74% through December, and Bitcoin from 0.07% to 0.19% to 0.39%, both predictable slopes at very different scales. Front-loaded: XPL goes from 1.02% in July to 19.46% through September, a near twentyfold leap in cumulative terms, before moderating to 26.29% by December, a profile that implies one large cliff landing in the third quarter rather than a steady ramp. Plateau: TRIBL rises from 1.20% in July to 3.61% through September and then holds flat at 3.61% through December, meaning its scheduled cliff issuance is exhausted after the third quarter and no further pressure is projected. Three tokens, three completely different risks, none of which is visible from a single month's figure.

The projection has hard boundaries and they are worth stating. It contains only dated supply, so allocations locked with no published release date sit outside it entirely, and forward emission projections deliberately exclude burns because burn rates depend on activity and governance and cannot be scheduled. Aggregation introduces its own caveats: the June 2026 report flags that ENA appears across multiple cliff dates within the month and that the aggregated cumulative December figure should be checked against source data. Cliff and linear curves are also read separately, because the same cumulative percentage arriving as discrete steps and arriving as a daily drip are different events. Finally, two projections are only comparable when the window start and the checkpoint match. The June and July 2026 reports both project HYPE forward to September, and they read 4.12% and 4.87% of total supply respectively, because each report re-bases the curve on its own starting month.