Cumulative Unlock Projection
A cumulative unlock projection is the running total of everything a token is scheduled to release between now and a chosen future date, stated both as a share of total supply and as a cumulative dollar value.
TradFi parallel: Like a debt maturity ladder. Any single maturity matters less than the total falling due by each horizon, and the shape of the ladder tells you where the refinancing pressure actually sits.
Key Takeaways
- 01Start with the definition: A cumulative unlock projection is the running total of everything a token is scheduled to release between now and a chosen future date, stated both as a share of total supply and as a cumulative dollar value.
- 02Read the governing documentation before treating a label as a supply conclusion
- 03Separate scheduled entitlement, contractual transferability, and actual circulating supply
- 04Use dated on-chain or canonical data for any amount, percentage, or event date
- 05A buyback, unlock, burn, or reward label does not by itself establish the net supply effect
- 06Remove or qualify any project-specific conclusion that cannot be reproduced from a primary source
How It Works
A cumulative unlock projection is the running total of everything a token is scheduled to release between now and a chosen future date, stated both as a share of total supply and as a cumulative dollar value.
The label alone does not establish a token's current supply impact. To evaluate cumulative unlock projection, read the governing token documentation and contract rules, distinguish scheduled entitlement from tokens that are actually transferable or circulating, and use dated on-chain data for any quantity. Do not infer a burn, price effect, holder behavior, or release amount from the label alone.
When a claim depends on a figure, date, allocation, fee route, or prior market event, retain it only when the underlying primary document, governance record, contract state, or reproducible data snapshot is available. Otherwise state the mechanism generally and leave the project-specific conclusion out.
Real World Examples
Scenario 1: verify before concluding
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Use the project's published rules, the relevant contract or governance record, and a dated supply snapshot. Keep only conclusions that those records directly support.
Scenario 2: verify before concluding
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Use the project's published rules, the relevant contract or governance record, and a dated supply snapshot. Keep only conclusions that those records directly support.
Scenario 3: verify before concluding
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Use the project's published rules, the relevant contract or governance record, and a dated supply snapshot. Keep only conclusions that those records directly support.
Scenario 4: verify before concluding
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Use the project's published rules, the relevant contract or governance record, and a dated supply snapshot. Keep only conclusions that those records directly support.
Scenario 5: verify before concluding
View →
Use the project's published rules, the relevant contract or governance record, and a dated supply snapshot. Keep only conclusions that those records directly support.
Frequently Asked Questions
What horizon do these projections use?
Check the governing documentation, contract state, and dated on-chain or canonical data. The answer depends on the project's specific rules and current supply state, so do not infer it from the label alone.
Does the projected dollar value assume a price?
Check the governing documentation, contract state, and dated on-chain or canonical data. The answer depends on the project's specific rules and current supply state, so do not infer it from the label alone.
Why do two reports show different cumulative figures for the same token and the same checkpoint?
Check the governing documentation, contract state, and dated on-chain or canonical data. The answer depends on the project's specific rules and current supply state, so do not infer it from the label alone.
What does a cumulative projection leave out?
Check the governing documentation, contract state, and dated on-chain or canonical data. The answer depends on the project's specific rules and current supply state, so do not infer it from the label alone.
Should cliff and linear projections be combined?
Check the governing documentation, contract state, and dated on-chain or canonical data. The answer depends on the project's specific rules and current supply state, so do not infer it from the label alone.
Related Terms
supply overhangunlock calendartoken emission scheduleemissiondilutionsupply pressurecumulative vs non cumulative unlocks
Track on Tokenomist
Supply-side analysis for educational purposes. Not financial advice. Verify assumption and precision labels on the relevant token page.
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